Peace in times of war: is it still possible?

Peace is more than the absence of war

The opening sentence of Franssen’s new book reads: “Peace is more than the absence of war,” and this is exactly the point he makes, based on his many years of experience as a journalist. If you look up the word 'peace' in a dictionary, you’ll often find it defined as the absence of war. Nothing could be further from the truth. It is an active process, a task that does not happen by itself and even costs money.

"Peace is more than the absence of war ."

Peace is not a given, especially not in a time when the geopolitical world order is undeniably shifting. Yet many in Europe only seem to have awakened since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. But those who looked closely saw the signs much earlier. According to Franssen, in Europe we’ve somewhat forgotten how to understand war and peace. What are tactical weapons? What are strategic interests? It seems we no longer fully grasp these concepts.

We are returning to a ‘normal’ world of conflicts

After the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union, a historically peaceful period emerged. We enjoyed globalization, economic growth, and relatively few casualties from armed conflicts. For more than 70 years, Europe lived in relative peace. But history shows that this is the exception, not the rule. Today we are returning to what, in world history, is actually ‘normal’: insecurity, uncertainty, and conflicts.

The new war is hybrid and digital

From server sabotage to using migration as a weapon: modern warfare is often invisible. No classic declaration of war, but actions that remain just below the threshold of official conflict.

An example: hackers attack our port infrastructure daily. Terrorism seems to have faded into the background but can return at any moment. And migration waves, fueled by climate change, will increase and be used to destabilize countries.

Autonomous weapons and the shift in warfare

The technological revolution is bringing us to a tipping point. Today, a €10,000 drone can cause more damage than a missile that costs millions. Smaller countries with smart technology can now challenge larger military powers. Humans have become the weakest link, and defense systems must be able to respond autonomously.

Belgium, too, owns frigates (warships) with autonomous weapon systems that automatically engage when attacked. This raises ethical questions, but also very practical ones: who will still want to send soldiers if the enemy has killer drones?

Flow security: modern defense is about more than weapons

After the Cold War, many European countries, including Belgium, chose to cut back on defense. In the 1970s, we spent 3% of GDP on defense; today, it’s barely 1.3%.

But investing in defense today is about much more than soldiers and weapons. ‘Flow security’ is the new key concept: the protection of essential flows such as data, energy, trade, and infrastructure. These flows are the driving forces behind our prosperity but also make us vulnerable to attacks. In a world where your economy can be paralyzed if a tunnel is blown up or a port is hacked, a classic ‘fortress belt’ along national borders is no longer sufficient.

Where does Europe stand in all of this?

Franssen held up a confronting mirror to Europe. While superpowers like China, Russia, and the U.S. have clear strategic goals, Europe seems stuck in indecisiveness.
•    USA: wants to remain the only superpower.
•    China: wants to be the world’s top economy within 20 years.
•    Russia: wants renewed regional power.
•    Europe: … isn’t quite sure.

Are we an economic union, a political one, a military one? The European Union is working on a strategic compass, but the direction is still vague. At the same time, we are building tanks that are too expensive to produce in sufficient numbers and buying aircraft from the U.S. because only they are compatible with American nuclear weapons.
 

The illusion of being small

Why, then, have we invested so little in security for so long? Was it because we were blind? There’s a typically Flemish trait at play here, where we think, “We’re just a small country.” But that’s not true.

Belgium is the seventh-largest economy within the EU. We are a country without natural resources, living off free flow and predictable international trade. That is precisely why Belgium should be a leader in defending the international legal order.

And historically, we did just that: Brussels became the heart of the European Union, and NATO’s headquarters are located here. Yet today, we have fewer diplomats and embassies than at any point in the last 50 years. A painful paradox.

"We’re just a small country."

A divided world: the UN vote on Ukraine

Franssen paints a powerful picture of how the world views the conflict in Ukraine. In February, 93 countries voted for a lasting peace. But 80% of the world’s population, represented by other countries, voted against or abstained.
This makes painfully clear that the West, despite its influential position, is no longer the center of the world. We are no longer automatically followed.
 

Looking away is no longer an option

Jens Franssen makes it crystal clear how the geopolitical reality is shifting: we no longer live in automatic peace, but in a world where war is again a real possibility. In a time of hybrid threats, geopolitical tensions, and digital attacks, security is no longer an abstract concept, but an active responsibility. Looking away is no longer an option. We must relearn what peace truly means and understand that it is not free. As Franssen himself summarizes in the final sentence of his book: ‘Maintaining peace requires courage, insight, and resources.’

Want to know more?

The book 'Peace in Times of War' by Jens Franssen offers in-depth insight into this complex topic and is an absolute must-read for anyone who wants to better understand today’s world.